3Q25 NAND Flash contract price increased by 5% to 10%, weak demand for mobile phones suppressed eMMC/UFS growth

TrendForce's latest survey shows that the NAND Flash market has lost production and inventory sales in the first half of the year, and the supply and demand imbalance has significantly improved. After the original factory transfers the production capacity to high gross profit products, the market circulation supply volume decreases. The demand side includes enterprise coded AI investment, and NVIDIA's new Blackwell chips for large-scale shipment support. Looking ahead to the third quarter, NAND Flash price trends, the average contract price will increase by 5% to 10%, but the eMMC/UFS products have a lower outlook due to the unclear outlook for smartphones in the second half of the year.

Consumer SSDs welcome inventory replenishment, and enterprise SSD supply does not increase order

TrendForce said that the consumer SSD market increased its recovery energy in the third quarter due to its OEM/ODM inventory advantage in the first half of the year. Windows 10 is shutting down support, new CPU launches to launch a wave of machine replacement, and China's DeepSeek machine hotspots are all driving demand. Some original manufacturers actively promote large-capacity QLC products and bring shipment scale. Comparing the above factors, the third quarter increased by 3% to 8%.

This year, the shipment of NVIDIA Blackwell platform has increased quarter by quarter, and the demand for universal servers in North America has increased. The strong ordering capacity of first-line customers in China is expected to continue to be extended to the second half of the year, which has stimulated the continued growth of corporate SSD demand in the third quarter. However, orders have grown too fast, and some suppliers have failed to deliver. In addition, the original factory has lowered its capacity at the beginning of the year, and the contract price in the third quarter has increased by 5% to 10%.

eMMC/UFS demand is dull, and crystal supply is facing restrictions

For mobile products, although China's consumer electronic supplement policy has been extended to the second half of the year, most people's purchasing demand has been met, and the demand for eMMC in the third quarter should be weak due to the weakening of the US tax policy. The supply situation is relatively sufficient compared to other products, but due to the reduction of the original factory's production capacity and the up-regulation of the crystalline price, the increase in module factory costs and the reduction of shipment can lead to an increase in inventory, and the price increase space is limited. The third quarter of eMMC contract price increased by 0~5%.

UFS is still developing due to the uncertain outlook for demand for smartphones, and the scale of the vehicle market is still developing, and the third quarter is "not prosperous". NAND Flash supply chain capacity configuration is guided by profit, and UFS supply is therefore restricted, and the contract price in the third quarter increased by 0~5%.

TrendForce pointed out that in the second quarter, the module factory shipment space was under pressure and the wafer inventory increased due to the original factory's priority release capacity to the end-end application. Considering that the demand for consumer electronics in the final market has weakened, some module manufacturers have conservative product delivery in the third quarter. The supply side has a decline in overall NAND Flash output, and the original factory focused on high-gross profit products and reduced supply of crystal circles. Prices increased by 8% to 13% in the third quarter.